$1k or bust

Given my assumption that there will be little interest in an immediate beginning to Cake Challenge III, I've decided to begin my own quest. Gonna try to turn my $300 on FTP into $1k in a year. Unsure if that's an overly-lofty goal or a soft one. My instinct is that it'll be difficult, especially given the smaller rakeback and the (presumably) tougher opponents as I'm playing in higher stakes games. I'll start off at $.05-$.10 and maybe $.10-$.20, and will endeavor to abide by proper bankroll management principles (which I understand to be 5% buyin; 10% at risk). Of course, if it's June 15, 2011 and I'm at $412, proper bankroll management may go out the window.....

Interested in:

1) thoughts on whether this is overly- or underly-ambitious;

2) whether anyone else wishes to join in the challenge; and

3) whether a sushi/jason-like book should be established, regardless of the answe to 2.

The Challenge Endeth......

I'm over 95% certain that the Cake Challenge is actually ending today. I've been certain before, but all signs point to July 1 being six months from January 1. Ended at $204.27, up (obviously) 104.27% over six months (and 30,464 hands)....but (more importantly to me right now) up 1300% from my June 4 end-of-session low of $13.07. Hard to (generally speaking) recommend the June POA, but (win or lose) I took the right approach given the enormity of the hole, the remaining time and my somewhat limited opportunity to play.

A rough breakdown of how I did over the six months in various games. Subject to the inaccuracy of today's tabulation, of course. [If someone wants to audit my google spreadsheet, let me know.]

$.02/$.04 NLHE (17k hands) -- $22.28
$.05/$.10 NLHE (1.5k hands) -- ($54.16)
$.10/$.20 NLHE (3.5k hands) -- $4.47
$.25/$.50 NLHE (1k hands) -- $127.38 --> sweet spot or pure, unadulterated luck?
Omaha (various) (2k hands) -- ($48.51)
SNGs and MTTs (various) -- ($74.80) --> tournament specialist

In the end, my best game was clearly Rakeback. Earned $111.20, or 107% of my overall profit, from Rakeback. Super scary. Never figured out HEM (actually, had it set up on wifee's laptop, but never got it properly set up for my laptop bought in February/March).

This experience had two clear phases, and I'm ok with both. The first phase (January-March, when I ran out of steam due to family drama) involved grinding $.02-$.04, one $4 buy in at a time. Played between 3 and 7 tables at a time, and I felt as if 4 was probably the ideal # given my peculiar attention span. Got as high as $200, before dropping back to $150ish. Certainly no master (and probably a pure middle of the road player, at best), but I enjoyed the grind of staying within my means.

Phase two was the "oh shit, this is about to end, I've been unable to play for two+ months, better throw caution to the wind" period. Because of my unique calendar-reading skills, I actually got two cracks at phase two. While some may question whether this approach (single tabling with a huge buy-in) was consistent with the spirit of the contest, it absolutely was. The contest had a finite time period to it. Some blew through their $100 'roll in one or two or ten sessions, early on. So be it. I accepted far greater risk in phase 2 (2a and 2b), and I had many opportunities to bust out. High risk, high reward. Certainly acceptable under the allotted time frame, in light of the scoreboard at the time. No other way to play it out.

Who's ready for Cake Challenge III? I am. I propose starting at $200 or $300 this time. Having climbed to greatness (ok, acceptable mediocrity) via imprudence, I'd be interested in communally giving it a shot using proper bankroll management at slightly higher starting stakes. Any takers??? (chirp, chirp, chirp.....)

One Day to Go in the Challenge

About 30 hours to go, I'll have very little remaining time to add to the Eeyore roll, which (proudly) stands at $167.43, plus about $14 in rakeback coming today/tomorrow). After reaching the $194 apex (and bragging about it my post), I had a horrible session (punctuated by my overplaying AQ), dropping down to $110. Never deterred (again, sole motivation = Whitmore's "I'll gladly short Adam" face), I kept plugging away, and have climbed back up near my June high.

I know Marsh (likely as a result of me raising the topic with him--duh) is re-engaged somewhat, and who knows if $180'ish will be enough to take it down. Regardless, I'm pretty pumped to have climbed out of my late May hole. Some interesting lessons:

* My game (or at least my attention span) seems best suited to play a single table, with stakes that cause me some level of concern. I'm not sure what would happen if I bought in $4 into a single $.02-$.04 table. I like to think that I habituate well to the stakes I'm playing, but I imagine I'd be hard pressed to respect the stakes when the downside risk is $4.

* I spent a lot of time (while playing $.10-$.20 and $.25-$.50) fixated on the 3-bet/4-bet tendencies of my opponents. By focusing significantly on that single facet of the game, and taking copious notes regarding those tendencies, I believe I've been able to exploit my opponents. In a way, the limited player pool of Cake has assisted me. Were I playing on FTP, I would have a much harder time leveraging that info given the huge player pool.

* One important tweak I made, as I put myself into the high risk world of putting a big % of my 'roll to work at one table, was to stop firing if I raised pre and then missed the flop. Assuming the board was accommodating, I certainly c-bet most of the times, but I resisted the temptation, when called pre and on the flop, to keep trying to push my way through. While I may've ultimately bought a few hands, I certainly would've blasted off my stack more often. And, working without a net (given the huge chunk being risked), I simply couldn't endure the volatility.

* It's ok to be bluffed. Again driven by life on the edge, I started to be more willing to simply lay down my hand when my opponent showed a ton of strength in the face of my apparent strength. I'm sure I've mucked quite a few winners, but I'm also sure the approach helped me survive the unique circumstances I found myself in.

Eeyore Has a Fighting Chance

So a good last week for the Eeyore roll. Motivated solely by separating Whitmore from his "I short Adam" money, I've played quite a bit (for me, that is). About 3300 hands since June 1.

My progress has been jagged, but that's to be expected playing $.10/$.20 (and now $.25/$.50) with a tiny stack. Nearly gave up when one cooler and one bad beat dropped me down to $52.20. [While I can hear Chuck and Marsh dismissing those hands as "standard," and they are, they didn't feel so "standard" given the percentage of the 'roll that was consumed.]

Instead of giving up --- once again nearly exclusively motivated by the vision of Whitmore paying Jeh one dollar at a time --- I did what any junkie would do with only a few days left. I bought in for $50 (of my remaining $52.20) at the $.25/$.50 table. In four $.25/$.50 sessions (totaling 300 or so hands), I've increased the 'roll from $52 to just over $194. The players at $.25/$.50, or at least the handful that I've encountered, are horrible. Station after station. I've definitely had my share of "run good," but I've been paid off at every turn. We'll see how it ends. Liking the trajectory of the graph, if nothing else......

Hello Variance, My Old Friend

One week into the $.10-$.20 ($20 buy in) experiment, things are up, then down, then way up, then way way down, then up. Considering that my post-catastrophe bankroll started at $13.07, these swings are huge. My session results:

* up $27.99
* down $20.00
* up $19.62
* up $11.16
* up $13.15
* up $5.83
* down $18.78
* up $5.30
* up $5.00
* down $40.00 (tilt!!!)
* up $32.46

With rakeback, I'm sitting at $69.00, having played over 1300 hands in my post-meltdown period. Heck of a lot better than $14, but a long way to go to get back into it. Check out the crazy graph. Glad I'm still in it, but I basically can't endure more than one or two lapses in concentration or coolers.

Oh, my graph. My beautiful, beautiful graph....is dead

Ok, my June 1/July 1 snafu has been well documented.......and very well exploited for the enjoyment of the crowd. So happy to entertain. Frustrating, but it's in the rear view.

So, I started June with a whopping $29 and change in the 'roll. I'm not going to pitch it in, because, well, I desperately want Whitmore to pay for shorting me. But, there's no way I can get back into contention...in 30 days...by adhering to proper bankroll management. At least, not until I can get the 'roll back to Marsh's neighborhood.

Following my May meltdown, I started June with $29 and proceeded to play a couple hundred hands at $.02-$.04 NLHE.....getting me exactly nowhere. In fact, it got me down to about $22. I shouldn't say it didn't get me anywhere. It got me off my self-induced, "if I could only count to 6 months" tilt. But $22 is $22.

So......with apologies to Marsh and Chris Ferguson.....I calmly and consciously bought in for $20 at the $.10-$.20 NLHE table. 44 hands later, I cashed out at just south of $48, with the overall 'roll at $50.01. My plan, for now, is to continue to buy in (way too large) at a single table in the hopes of sustaining some success. I fully realize that odds are that I will go busto employing this strategy, but I'm not sure what else I can do given my May debacle. I don't have much time or energy to grind it up in June, and even if I had Marty-like dedication and opportunity, I still couldn't turn $22 (or now $50) into $200 by month's end.

Any feedback on this approach????

2010 1Q Report

So...on Tuesday, with 2 days to go in the Sushi portion of the challenge, I sat in the low $170s. Decided I'd try my luck at $.05/$.10 NLHE to see if I could make up some ground on our fair leader. A little out of line probably, but semi-reasonable. Bought in for $8 at a few tables (still under the 5% rule) and proceeded to get crushed. Down about $14 in just 134 hands. Ugh.

With rakeback, the Eeyore 'roll ended at $158.76 (subject to review -- my spreadsheet tells me it should've been $3 higher, but Cake says what it says).

The breakdown (just under 21k hands in total) is as follows:

$.02/$.04 NLHE -- $60.17
$.05/$.10 NLHE -- ($42.25) - ouch
$.02/$.04 PLO -- $2.02
SNGs -- ($32.30) - ouch
MTTs -- $11.21
Rakeback -- $60.01

These results are a little unsettling, especially as I hope to get to the $200 plateau and move out of the micro micro stakes. Ditching the SNGs is easy. Done. But the $.05/$.10 result (which occurred in just 900+ hands) is problematic. I'm somewhat at a loss to explain the results; the following is all I've noticed.

* My (limited) experience is that people aren't simply handing away their money, as they often are at $.02/$.04. That dead money sure does help. Duh.

* I feel like I'm approaching the game a bit differently, which is adding volatility to the results. I'm trying to be a bit craftier (rather than simply playing ABC, TAG poker). By anecdotal memory (as opposed to HEM analysis), I'm 3-betting more from the blinds when the initial raise comes from the button. This approach has me putting more chips at risk than I my typical ABC baseline mode.

* My buy in is a little light, as I tend to buy in for $8 rather than $10. Maybe somebody has some insight here, but I feel REALLY short stacked in this game when I buy in for $8 (as I would if I were buying in for $10) because I'm seeing some really huge stacks. I sat at a table the other day where there were several people above $20 and one over $40. (Perhaps that should've been a sign that these guys had been there a while and were picking off the other players)

Not sure. Any words of wisdom re an approach for $.05/$.10? Eeyore inertia would prefer to go back to being the TAGgiest of TAGs. At least my volatility would lower.